*Unit 8.6, Lesson 2:
Forecasting the Likelihood of Natural Hazards
Lesson Question:
- How can we predict where a natural hazard like a flood will occur?
Learning Performance:
- Make a claim that forecasts a natural hazard (flooding), based on patterns in the location and frequency of past events, as well as the assumption that the conditions that created those hazards in the past will remain the same in the future.
Concepts & Practices:
| Lesson Key Concepts | Patterns in the location and frequency of past natural hazard events can be used to predict future events.Predictions based on the frequency of past events can only be made in terms of likelihood (probability); these are called forecasts.In order to make forecasts based only on records of past events, scientists must assume that the conditions that created those hazards in the past will remain the same in the future. |
| Lesson Key Practices | Organize and describe data.Analyze data to identify patterns and determine relationships.Use analyzed data to provide evidence and make predictions. |
Lesson Takeaways:
- A natural hazard forecast is a scientific claim about the likelihood of a natural hazard event occurring in a particular place.
- Historical data about where and how often natural hazard events have occurred is one form of evidence that scientists can use to support a hazard forecast.
- A forecast is a claim about the probability (likelihood) of an event occurring, based on understanding and evidence produced through scientific observation and reasoning.
- Scientists are able to identify patterns in data and make a claim about how likely it is that natural hazards will occur in a particular place.
- A claim depends on the assumption that the conditions that created those hazards in the past will remain the same in the future.
- It is possible to forecast the location of flooding and how often flooding will occur based on the area and frequency of past flooding events.
- We can also reason that they must assume that the conditions that created the flood, such as the shape of the valley, and the overall amount of precipitation over the year, will remain the same in the future.
- Source: https://mi-star.mtu.edu/