“In summary:
- Indicators suggest that weak La Niña/cool-neutral conditions prevailed from August 2016 to early January 2017, but are now more clearly ENSO-neutral;
- Models surveyed and expert opinion suggests ENSO-neutral conditions are approximately 70-85% likely during the first half of 2017;
- Forecasts for ENSO for the second half of the year, made in the first quarter of the year, typically display a large range of possibilities;
- For the second half of 2017, continued ENSO-neutral conditions are the most likely scenario but the possibility for El Niño development during the third or fourth quarters of 2017 is significant, with a likelihood of around 35-40%. There is only a small chance of La Niña development during 2017.
The state of ENSO will be carefully monitored. More detailed interpretations of regional climate variability will be generated routinely by the climate forecasting community over the coming months and will be made available through the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. For web links of the National Meteorological Hydrological Services, please visit:
https://public.wmo.int/en/about-us/members/national-services
For information and web links to WMO Regional Climate Centres please visit: